CHINA'S VISION OF VICTORY

Jonathan D. T. Ward

Atlas Publishing, 2019, 279 pgs., index, notes, paperback

Reviewer Comment:

The author spent years in China and more in the study of Chinese political, economic and military policies and planning. But he has lived or visited many other places around the world and seen first hand what the Chinese are doing on other continents. He learned to speak and read not only Chinese but Russian. This is a comprehensive result of these years of study. He includes direct citations from original Chinese sources that describe the objectives and means being employed to achieve them. The fundamental mission of Chinese leadership is to enable China to be the leading world power by 2050. To this end they are employing every type of power including especially economic and military expansion. Each page of the book is packed with information, data, quotations, appraisals that make it impossible to prepare an adequate summary in a few pages. This is a brief survey, so please read the book.

The author develops his thesis gradually, with the historical background first, he recognizes that for many American readers the story is almost incomprehensible. How could this backward, poverty stricken, and communist saddled country suddenly become a world power and dangerous rival to America? Read this and find out.

To supplement the important but necessarily space -limited description of this vital subject I add, below, links to other references that discuss and expand on it. In particular, I recommend Blackwill's broad academic study of 'geoeconomics' a policy which Chinese leaders have been employing with great success for many years and which American leaders have mostly failed to appreciate. There are three references focused on Chinese employment of 'geoeconomics' to achieve their long-term goal of becoming the dominant world power by 2049: Kai-Fu Lee's AI Super-powers China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order- Pillsbury's The Hundred-Year Marathon - and Jacques' When China Rules the World. And also read Allison's more traditional historical approach to the subject in his Destined For War. Other references listed below may provide a much wider understanding of Chinese history.
I could use most of these books as the central reference in assembling a broader series for study of Chinese current and future expansionist policy and action, but Ward's book seems to be the best.

I also highly recommend that students set in their computer email an automatic word search and delivery by Google for - China - the result is extensive reporting from around the world on specific incidents and applications by the Chinese of 'geoeconomics'. Another excellent source of studies on current military issues is the U.S. Naval Institute.

There has been and continues to be so much written exposing the Chinese government strategy and goals that it is not possible to collect it all. But I have assembled a sampling of articles and books and listed them below.

Introduction

The author describes the standard American outlook and resulting policy toward China since the 'opening' by Kissinger and Nixon as 'engage but hedge'. The basis was the typical American belief in the inevitable development of liberalism, free markets and democracy in all countries once they were able to appreciate the advantages these would bring to their societies. Dr. Pillsbury discusses this liberal mind set in detail and admits he was a full believer in it for years during which he actually had extensive personal discussions with senior Chinese military and political officials and theorists.
But this has not been the result in practice, especially in China. The Chinese have an entirely different appreciation for their own civilization and culture as well as an entirely different outlook on the role of the United States along with the rest of the 'western powers' in dominating and exploiting Chinese weakness from the time of the Opium Wars to World War II.
In claiming the American belief and resulting policies have been a failure he writes:
"this strategy has brought us to the brink of the end of an American led World. It is an approach that will eventually bring about the end of American power."
A very strong and bleak assessment. But one that he supports effectively. And one in which several of the authors to whom I link below agree. He provides his summary view right in this introduction. "The People's Republic of China - its rise built substantially on economic empowerment through engagement with the United States - is now returning to the original ideological intentions of the Chinese Communist Party." In the book he describes what these intentions actually are. He provides numerous specific examples both of actual written and spoken texts of leading Chinese authorities and of case studies of real actions by Chinese government and private individuals.
Moreover, he claims that: "For a long and trusting moment, over more than thirty years, American policy-makers empowered this rise, perhaps not knowing where it would lead, perhaps knowing only that the Communist Party would lead China." Michael Pillsbury, who occupied a senior position among the policy-makers and advisors, writes the same appraisal, and further, shows that much of Chinese economic advancement was funded by the United States or World Bank.
Dr. Ward write that: Americans should have known better. "A litany of speeches, strategy documents, and policies have poured forth from the Communist Party in recent years. All of them explain China's near and long-term ambitions. From outer space to the deep sea, from Africa to the Arctic, from artificial intelligence to hypersonic missiles that can 'kill American aircraft carriers', the Chinese Communist party has mobilized its country and its people to become the global leaders it virtually every form of economic, military, technological, and diplomatic activity on earth."
"By 2030, if current trends hold. China will surpass the United States as the world's top economic power in absolute terms." Martin Jacques and Michael Pillsbury basically agree with the assessment, but Pillsbury deplores the result while Jacques is delighted.
Dr. Ward states his purpose: "The purpose of this book is to provide the needed wake-up call. To inform you, so that you will understand and be ready. If our power is ultimately broken, it will be a danger not only to Americans, but to the world."

"There are three things we must do to win."
First, we must remain the world's top economic power.
Second, we must work with other democracies and nations to preserve the international system.
Third, we must maintain military and technological superiority over China.
And we also must recognize that these are not 'short-term' problems.
The future of the world-wide expansion, development and application of all aspects of AI - Artificial Intelligence - is the subject of Kai-Fu- Lee's book in which he describes what the Chinese are doing to gain dominance in this critical industry.
In the remainder of this introduction Dr. Ward writes a general summary of the main thoughts set forth in the other chapters.

Part I - "The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation"

In this section Dr. Ward focuses on telling the story - narrating with comments about its long-term continuity - that the Chinese leadership has a core philosophy and goal to 'rejuvenate' that means, bring back, China's Rightful place as the dominant world power. This may sound strange to Americans and Europeans who believe China never was a 'world' power. But in China's world it was the "Middle Kingdom" the hegemon around which the near and far vassal countries orbited while remaining alert to not offend the leading power, China. As Dr. Ward writes, "its essence (the story) is very simple: a great nation was laid low. It was devastated by the outside world. It was torn apart by foreigners. Its people were brutalized. Its lands were scorched. Its treasures were stolen." Now under the leadership of the Communist party this historical atrocity is being eradicated and more. In the near future it will be again the center of the world, but a much larger world.

1.1 - National Resurrection

Dr. Ward describes the fundamental concept - belief system - guiding Chinese national aspirations and policies to achieve them. This is the "Road to Renewal" - the "Resurrection of the Fatherland" - the overcoming of the "One Hundred Years of Humiliation". All of these slogans refer to the Chinese being forced by European (and the US) military power beginning with the two Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion to grant unwanted concessions and control over Chinese society - economic and political affairs. The Chinese have not forgotten. More recently the Chinese Communist Party defeated the foreign backed Nationalists and established the Republic in 1949. This is the starting year, then, for the 100 year campaign to become the world's strongest power in 2049.

This is the Wikipedia entry - there are many more links in any search engine

1.2 - "The New China": Mao Zedong (1949 - 1976)

The author describes Mao as "A kind of philosopher -king figure, who came to regard himself as something of a god among men. Mao also wrote about the need for destruction in order to bring about the new world he dreamed of. He writes that: "Mao's theory of violence was essential to the Leninist transformation of China, meaning the dominance of a single political party over a nation's people, and the use of the population for the objectives of the state."
In other words, the Communist Party takes over the role of the former Imperial mandarin bureaucracy that sought to maintain social cohesion over a disparate, huge population occupying an enormous and geographically diverse territory. Maintaining an all powerful central government in the face of internal and external forces for dissolution had always been essential, even critical.

Dr. Ward provides many excellent quotations from Mao and other leaders and observers. One of his assessments is: "From the beginning, China's restoration was aimed not only at transforming China from within, but also, as master historian Chen Jian explains, 'reasserting China' central position in the world'. And, "As Qiang Zhai, another leading historian of the period explains, Mao's 'vision of China's place in the world ... aimed at transforming not only the old China but also the old world order.'"

One of the dominant myths that energize the Chinese perception of their 'rightful place' is the title 'The Middle Kingdom' by which they assert that for centuries China was the world leader and dominant society. This perception, constantly stressed by the Party, gives the Chinese people a much more powerful psychological goad than did Hitler's Aryan superiority did for the Germans.

But, as he continues.: "This is the mission China's current leaders have inherited, one they are determined to fulfill". And he presents an excellent narration and appraisal of the problems the Chinese leadership had to overcome during Mao's reign and their successes and failures. His conclusion: "Pure socialism gave way to reforms which at last transformed the Chinese economy, and the geopolitics of global confrontation gave way to the mantra, "Hide your brightness, bide your time."

These are Wikipedia entries - there are many more.

1.3 - "Hide Your Brightness, Bide Your Time", Deng Ziaoping and Jiang Zemin (1978 - 2002)

As Dr. Ward notes, Deng Ziaoping opened China to economic reform while he and the Communist Party strengthened central political control. He was educated in western Europe and the Soviet Union and had a much wider personal understanding of the vital importance of modernizing industry and the entire economy that even Mao had. Thus, during his reign China really entered a 'great leap forward' that Mao only dreamed of. But Deng recognized that China needed a period of peaceful accommodation both for the internal pause needed for industrial expansion and for the external financial and technical support such a foreign policy could enable. Dr. Ward provides some metrics as examples, for instance that Chinese foreign trade expanded from 10$ billion in 1978 to 100 times that in three decades. But, he notes, Deng never lost sight of the long-term objective of making China a world power. In his speeches and writing Deng stressed the purpose 'of development, growth, and modernity." This meant that expansion of Chinese economic capability would be supportive of increased military capacity and geopolitical success.

All of this, then, his successor, Jiang Zemin, parlayed into further expanded capabilities. The Chinese (like the Russians) were stunned by the military technology the United States unleashed in the wars in Iraq. The response was to redouble military modernization and more. Dr. Ward comments: "China's bifurcated program of economic reform and military modernization continued. China had found its place within an American -led world but had yet to emerge as a transformative actor in the world's balance of power."... "Jiang began a military modernization drive in 1995 with massive budgetary increases." His assessments: "While Deng and Jiang spoke to the world of economics, nationalism grew in China as well." .. The Party's hold on power during this chapter of China's restoration proved to be secure."

1.4 - "The Period of Strategic Opportunity": Hu Jintao (2002 - 2012)

Dr. Ward writes that: "The best examples of continuity in China's revolution occurred between the Deng, Jiang, and Hu eras, spanning 1978 to 2012."... "In this thirty-year period, China consolidated its economic miracle while Deng's mantra 'hide your brightness and bide your time' remained the principle when it came to Chinese power." The Party leaders then considered the next period, from 2002 to 2020 to be one of 'strategic opportunity'. Meaning that by now China would have sufficient power to engage in further unimpeded expansion of its economic and military power. They were enabled to speak openly about 'the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'.
Dr. Ward expands his detailed use of quotations and their analysis. In summary, Jiang Zemin continued the foreign policy of advocating peace and friendship with all nations while stressing military modernization. This enabled Hu to accede to a China that had already experienced major economic and military expansion. Plus, it had begun its geoeconomic expansion of power into other regions, including Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, Indian Ocean and beyond. Hu continued to stress the "Peaceful Rise of China" especially for foreign consumption. But he was also more open in his assessments of where Chinese objectives were headed. Dr. Ward quotes many examples, including a 'secret speech' in 1994 in which he predicted that future relations with the United States would deteriorate "in the next few years and even for a longer period to come, and further worsening and confrontations may occur." Dr. Ward includes a clear summary of the expansion of China's economic power. " He writes: "During the Hu era, from 2002 to 2012, substantial changes took place, both in capabilities and confidence, and questions about China's relations with the outside world were asked by many as the country's power grew."

And here he identifies a crucial concept. "As the Chinese leadership saw it, however, it was not a rise, but a restoration. The question became: When would China's leaders begin to speak of this restoration of power openly?"

1.5 - "The China Dream": Xi Jinping

Dr. Ward describes how 'Under Xi Jinping, all of this (previous cautious advancements) has changed." He begins by noting: "In 2014 and 2015, a turning point began taking shape in the South China Sea." ... "From Deng to Hu Jintao, though Communist Party leadership spoke frequently of the mission of rejuvenation, the country walked a careful line between building its capabilities and hiding any appearance of hostility to the current world order." But now Chinese policy and actions have changed. Internally suppression of potential (or perceived or real) opposition has increased, And externally Chinese geoeconomic (economic and military) priorities have moved into the open. Even so, Dr. Ward stresses that the 'continuity' of Chinese aspirations and efforts have not changed over a long period. His assessment is not to be concerned about the obvious nature of the great expansion of power itself, but rather to be concerned about its proclaimed ambitious goals of revolution and restoration of Chinese world power.

In other words he is concerned because American political policy has for a generation been to aid China and to welcome its becoming an EQUAL partner among the leading nations. But the goal of the Chinese leadership is not to become an EQUAL partner but to become THE dominant world power.

Now, he believes that the revelation of Chinese actual goal of hegemony may be helpful if responded to in time. "That this power should have such a clear and visible sense of self is beneficial to our understanding of what is at stake." And, "What is perhaps most troubling about Xi's ambitions - as one gets deeper into their purpose -- is how the Chinese public has come to embrace this sense of destiny." ... "Now is a time for expansion of national interest, and, in Xi's words, for being able 'to fight and win wars'". And, "This is not a departure. It is simply that China has realized, at long last, its opportunity for preeminence."

1.6 - "The New China" Meets "The China Dream" (Xi Jinping - 19th Party Congress, October 2017)

Dr. Ward stresses with examples that "Xi Jinping ties his mission to China's 'original aspirations'". He indicates that the "New China" and the "China Dream" have combined. He reproduces at length Xi's 'Work Report' to the Party Congress in November 2017.
China will "move closer to central stage." ... "it is China's 'invincible force of more than 1.3 billion people' that will lead to its unlimited potential on the 'infinitely vast state' that is the world". The report - speech - traces China's historic role as the world power back 5000 years and stresses the humiliation and disaster inflicted on China in the Opium Wars and subsequent foreign domination. He stresses the critical importance of the Party policy program to return China to its rightful place as world power. In other words he invokes the national patriotism of the Chinese people to accept Party leadership and fulfill the 'dream'.

"Our Party was deeply aware that, to achieve national rejuvenation, it was essential to establish an advanced social system that fits China's reality. It united the people and led them in completing socialist revolution, establishing socialism as China's basic system, and advancing socialist construction. This completed the broadest and most profound social transformation in the history of the Chinese nation."
There is much more in this remarkable oration that Americans have either ignored or dismissed.

But Dr. Ward perceptively writes: "The greatness of China and the power of the A Party are thus one and the same: 'As history has shown and will continue to bear witness to, without the leadership of the Communist Party of China, national rejuvenation would be just wishful thinking'".

1.7 - From "the Peaceful Rise of China" to "Fighting the Bloody Battle Against Our Enemies"

Dr. Ward opens by pointing to an essential characteristic of Chinese (and usual dictatorial regimes). "When China's leaders set an agenda, it becomes the story of the nation." He gives the examples of all out nature of this response that harnesses every medium of education, propaganda, media, entertainment, employment and culture to insure that each individual eagerly participates in this great mission of rejuvenation and overthrow of foreign domination. He again provides typical quotations.

Another of his perceptions. "China's military buildup is generally explained in this way: as a contribution to world peace and human progress. Except when it is not. The subversion, appropriation, and manipulation of concepts, speech, and slogans by the Chinese Communist Party should be no surprise."

1.8 - From "Able To Fight And Win Wars" to "Preparing to Fight and Win Wars"

Dr. Ward opens with several appropriate quotations. Then he remarks: "China' sense of self is defensive. As far as the party and its adherents are concerned, it is their right to return to preeminence in the world. Whatever gets in the way of this goes against 'legitimate rights and interests' and stands in the way of the great rejuvenation." He cites several specific examples of the Chinese reaction when foreign states -such as India - attempt to prevent some Chinese policy.

Part II - "Blue National Soil" China's Strategic Geography and Military Plans

In this section the author gets into specific details. "The South China Sea is only the Beginning. The Chinese building of 'military outposts' there is an opening move in a strategy that spans multiple continents and oceans".

2.1 - The Military Rise of China

Here is another of Dr. Ward's perceptive observations. "The world has become accustomed to China as a major economic power. What many do not realize is that the global trading system China has built will be backed by global military power." And, "Now, in the twenty-first century, China has emerged as the world's leading nation by volume of trade, surpassing the United States in 2013." ... "The Chinese military has begun a massive campaign to become a major maritime power. As the world's top trading nation, China's economic and political survival depends on assured access to the world's resources and therefore to the world's oceans."
In this chapter Dr. Ward describes details of this effort.

2.2 - New Technologies, New Frontiers

Dr. Ward notes (as have other observers) that the Chinese (as well as the Russians) were shocked at the huge technological power the United States displayed in the First Gulf War. They set about emulating and then surpassing this as quickly as possible by employing every economic, political, diplomatic, clandestine and other tools they could. For example, Dr. Ward shows the relation of China's expanded space program to increasing military power: All in the pursuit, of course, of a contribution to human peace and progress. See Kai-Fu Lee's book, listed below, for some detail.

2.3 - Internal Security and Homeland Defense: China's Traditional Military Geography

This chapter is about the history of Chinese defense by conquering Tibet, Chinese Turkestan (Xinjian) , control of Mongolia, efforts to control Korea, and Taiwan. For centuries the Chinese had to focus on their land borders and various powerful neighbors. They were concerned about the neighboring ocean as well, but not as much. But now they are.

2.4 - The New World Map: Regional Expansion and a Global Military Presence

The greatly expanded Chinese interest in world-wide geoeconomics accompanies Chinese demand for access to critical raw material resources as well as usual foreign policy. Dr. Ward discusses the 'Maritime Silk Road' and the 'Silk Road Economic Belt'.
See Frankopan, Kaplan and Blackwill.
Dr. Ward: "The 'belt and road' is positioned as an economic initiative, a 'win- win' and a natural response to the vast, multi-trillion dollar infrastructure needs of emerging Asian and African economies. But it should at this point come as no surprise to notice that it overlaps exactly with China's primary resource interests, and current and future military deployments". The chapter contains much excellent detail on what this aspect of Chinese policy is all about.

2.5 - Toward 2049: China's Vision of Military Power

Dr. Ward writes that: "While China's current military structure is focused on 'active defense' in the Indo-Pacific, its future presence and capabilities will be far more powerful." It has established goals in a tier of expanding geopolitical lines. At present the Party views its objective is gaining control over the first tier. Dr. Ward quotes from Chinese documents. In these acquisition, development and superiority in all aspects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a goal. Another is dominance in Quantum computing. In this competition they are accessing American technology. He mentions Michael Pillsbury's work in study of China to illustrate how little of the Chinese efforts American officials knew a few years ago (see below). China has 'moved from a position of total disadvantage to what Aron Friedberg calls 'a contest for supremacy' all in less than a generation's time".

Part III: "Catch up to America, Surpass America": China's Economic and Technological Ambitions

More quotes from Mao and Xi - Then Dr. Ward writes: "The World has been living with China's 'economic miracle' for over thirty years." He lists some of the many economic categories in which China has expanded and dominates. the broadest is "China has emerged to trade with all the world's regions. becoming the top trading nation, ahead of the United States, and building up massive cash reserves many times those of other nations."

3.1 - "Comprehensive National Power"

Dr. Ward again: "Comprehensive national power is an economic concept".

Well, not exactly. But economic power is the basis, core, foundation, of national power in which economic strength is translated into political, cultural and military power as well. or at Blackwill terms it - geoeconomic power. The relationship of economic and military power has been debated for centuries. Back in the Renaissance era a common concept was that 'with gold one could buy good soldiers' - but Machiavelli countered that 'with good soldiers one could acquire gold'. But he also counseled the ruler about conquering a territory. The successful ruler would only consider such a conquest if the cost (profit) obtainable from such expansion was greater than the cost of taking and administrating the region.

However, Dr. Ward rightly describes the beliefs and resulting policies and actions of Chinese leaders. The basis for success will be found in massive economic expansion. He writes: "The important thing is to understand the economics will be the foundation for China's power as a whole." And, "The Party's narrative of history, as we have seen, is not rise, but restoration." He cites many expressions found in China's public places "Wealth and power". Again, "While China has a profound military culture and a proud military history, throughout much of the history of Chinese civilization, China's massive economy or market generally has been the centerpiece of Chinese power."
Further, "Advanced technology and innovation continue to be at the heart of Chinese strategy, not only for the military industrial base, but to continue to build economic power as the country rises up the value chain and as labor costs increase."

3.2 - Made in China 2025: Mastering Future Industries and Going Global

The chapter's title indicates the main subject. Dr. Ward considers it, "The most important strategic program today is called 'Made in China 2025". This is the Chinese 10 year plan announced in 2015 to focus government support of critical technology development in military strategic areas 'in the rise and fall of world power'". As usual, he provides key quotations. And he lists ten 'strategic industries' that Hu Jintao had identified to promote Chinese industrial - technical expansion and achieve superpower status. They cover the spectrum of 'high tech' from agriculture to bio-tech to IT. The policy is to acquire as much knowledge in these fields from foreigners as possible and use it to develop these industrial capabilities IN China.
Dr. Ward stresses this importance: "The advent of 'Made in China 2025' is an 'existential' issue, according to my conversations with economists and trade organizations in the United States." And, "When China enters new export markets it does so not only with cheaper goods, but also with government support." And, "China is one giant incubator". And, "The creation of an advanced industrial base is essential to the Communist Party's ambition of catching up with and ultimately surpassing the United States as the leading technological power."
He describes his personal contacts over years of living in China. His Chinese acquaintances stressed what many Western historians have noted for years, namely, that China lost its relative economic and technological lead over Europe after 1800 due to 'lagging' and government inertia.

3.3 - The Importance of Economic Power, Technology and National Strength

Dr. Ward cites the example of Japan which avoided being colonized by Western powers. He notes that analysts of the many other countries that were colonized attribute that to their "lack of economic progress and political unity". This is the causation the Chinese themselves emphasize today. With more quotations, he describes the Chinese (Mao's) reaction and program - to use every method available, including violence, to regain world status. His assessment, "In the early decades of China's revolution, Mao and his compatriots saw economic revitalization, military struggle, and confrontation with the United States as intertwined." And this included outside as well as inside China. In the years after Mao's death, as he has described in previous chapters, the 'confrontation' aspect was reduced due to Chinese recognition that a period of acting friendly would achieve more results, but the fundamental policy agenda never changed.

3.4 - China's Economy: Rejuvenation's Engine

In this chapter Dr. Ward shifts to description of the current China's economic condition. He notes the two radically different assessments one reads in the press - either China is 'an unstoppable juggernaut, or it is doomed to collapse - either it is about to dominate the world or it will be overcome by internal weaknesses. He maintains that it is nether but has been expanding its economy and military power "as a case of patient, state-led strategic planning intertwined with a work force many times the size of most other nations, a period of globalization that offered new export opportunities and a global division of labor that played to China's natural advantages in manufacturing and nascent industrial power." He supports his evaluation with numerous quotations from Chinese leaders. Among these he focuses on the Communist Party's "two -stage development plan" that will be implemented from 2020 - 2049. The 'first stage' of this is from 2020 -to 2035. He lists 8 major goals which will achieve 'basic modernization'. The 'second stage' will be from 2035 to 2049. He lists 5 more goals that build on the first stage.

3.5 -China's Ambitions in Technology and Innovation

In this chapter Dr. Ward begins by noting that "China's technological ambitions require the help of many non-Chinese entities." This need has certainly been shown over the past 30 years by Chinese efforts to obtain technological secrets either by demanding foreign companies provide them as a requirement to do business in China or by clandestine means. The foreign companies are so eager - thinking of China only as a massive consumer market - that they have unwillingly complied. Now many are so enmeshed in the Chinese market or have been bought by Chinese using the profits from the relationship that they cannot easily withdraw.
Dr. Ward describes one aspect of this: "Cybertheft - the most widely known example of the interference of the Chinese state in global business - has ranged from theft of designs for advanced US fighter planes and gas distribution networks to 'personal information from health care providers'". Chinese leaders repeatedly either deny this or promise to stop it. Americans believe they are dealing with Chinese 'free enterprise' companies, but as Dr. Ward shows, all enterprises in China are linked to the Communist Party. As he writes: "the Communist party has also brought Chinese corporations and military together through the policy of 'Civil Military Fusion'".

3.6 -China Goes Global: State and Private Enterprise Take on the World

Dr. Ward writes: "Just as the branches of the Chinese military carry out China's military strategy, dozens of state-owned companies carry out Chinese economic ambitions at home and abroad. Massive Chinese private companies are an even newer feature on the world state, and these also play a role in building the country's future." Dr. Ward quotes remarks by major Chinese business men who champion their role in promoting China. He mentions a few specific examples, such as China Energy Engineering Group (CEEG), Huawei Investment and Holding, and China Southern Power Grid, China Baowu Steel Group, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Post Group. Among specific examples of Chinese (CEEG) building infrastructure in foreign countries. He cites China Harbor Engineering Company building a harbor in Sri Lanka.

He describes the complex interaction. "Whether it is a state-owned enterprise, or a company led by a famous individual like Communist Party member Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba, China's companies are now going global, filling in the ever-larger footprint of China in the world." And - "So then, how do Chinese companies play the game? And how coordinated it it? Like China's military strategy, corporate strategy is naturally a game of consolidation and expansion. It is done through acquisitions." He follows this description with many more quotations.

3.7 - Toward 2049: China's Vision of Economic Power

Dr. Ward quotes a friend, "China has learned more from history than we have ever even read." The Chinese believe the old adage expressed by Mao that 'power grows out of the barrel of the gun', and that 'he who has the gold makes the rules' - and then he who has the gold can acquire the guns. So there is an intrinsic merger of gold and guns necessary for the acquisition and retention of power. They firmly believe that all great powers were created on economic and military power. Their conclusion is that China must develop great economic power. Dr. Ward writes: "This has been a national priority since 1949. It is the centerpiece of the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation'". And - "The fulfillment of the national mission remains a priority of the Party, and of many in the country."
Here he quotes Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency. "By then China will be a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence. prosperity for everyone will be basically achieved, a prospect that the Chinese nation has been longing for since the Opium War (1840-1842). At this point, Xi, the unrivalled helmsman, who will steer China toward this great Dream".
And, "As Xi himself explains. "The original inspiration and the mission of the Chinese Communists is to seek happiness for the Chinese people and rejuvenation for the Chinese nation.""

Part IV: "The Ceaseless Expansion of National Interests": China's Growing Global Reach

"China's ascendancy is a story of ambition, but it is also a story of necessity.' Dr. Ward points out that China has by far the world's largest population, but it also lacks the national resources essential for them to survive, let alone become a world power. He writes that China must gain access to the world's national resources in "every region of the globe'.

In this part he demonstrates that, "China's global trade and resource quest is already leading to new international relationships that are changing the balance or power region by region. From a growing dependence on the Chinese market by oil-producing nations in the Middle East, to an emerging strategic competition between India and China in Asia's maritime regions, to growing influence in Africa and Latin America that has left American policy-makers behind."
"The foundation for a de facto Chinese victory is being laid across the world every day."

4.1 - Overview: China's Need for the World's Resources

Dr. Ward summarizes China's situation. "China's demand for oil, gas, meat, grain, minerals, protein, water, and other basic resources has grown enormously over the last thirty years and will increase in the coming decades." And - "China's relationships with major powers will matter more and more as its global economic and military expansion grows." The fact that such a predominant volume of the resources China needs come from far away and by sea is alone a reason for Chinese strenuous efforts to gain control of these strategic sea lanes lest the United States remain able to blockade them.

4.2 - China in the Middle East

Not surprisingly given the world dependence on oil from the Gulf States, China too - "understands the risks of energy dependence on and involvement in the Middle East, having learned from the experience of the United States". - "It also fears dependence on overseas oil in general, thus leading to a strategy of massive investment in renewable energy sources at home, from solar power to electric vehicles." It also seeks to create a "spiderweb of global suppliers" which, "in turn requires a military buildup in order to secure the choke points and sea lanes upon which its imports depend."

Dr. Ward does not mention it, but no doubt the Chinese remember how the United States prior to World War II and then even more successfully during the war, blockaded Japan from access to the critical raw materials - especially oil - essential for survival.
Dr. Ward does note that as usual Chinese propaganda stresses to the Arab nations its 'friendship' existed for thousands of years with the Silk Road and it incorporates that legacy in its current programs of 'Silk Road Economic Belt' and 'Twenty-First Century Maritime Silk Road'.

4.3 - China in Africa

Dr. Ward explains that, "China's presence in Africa is about much more than energy. Chinese workers, Chinese development banks, Chinese oil majors, State-Owned Enterprises, and small -business owners have all joined a supersized migration over the last twenty-five years. Chinese trade with Africa has ballooned from $10.44 billion in 2000 to $127.97 in 2016." And - China's ideological approach to the wider world is especially visible in Africa". Dr. Ward devotes significant attention to Chinese penetration into Africa, providing a list of specific policies and goals. China deems Africa an important 'resource and supply base'. He describes many specific examples in various countries.

Earlier students of the 'Cold War' and Sino-Soviet relations will recall what Dr. Ward does not mention - that Africa already in the 1960's was a central locus of Chinese - Soviet competition to gain control over the 'Third World' countries.

4.4 - China in Latin America

Again, Dr. Ward observes that, "China is also developing its resource base in Latin America. This stretches beyond Venezuelan, Colombian, and Brazilian oil and adds new dimensions to our picture: Food." The Chinese program to obtain secure food supplies includes outright purchase of huge acreages of fertile land with water where ever possible, and very significantly in Latin America. And Brazil (which will be a major partner) and Argentina are examples. The "Belt and Road" economic program stretches into Latin America and the Caribbean. Dr. Ward writes, "In other words, China's global vision extends beyond even Eurasia and Africa, the core areas of the 'Belt and Road' and its meeting with enthusiasm even in the Western hemisphere."

4.5 -China in the Arctic and Antarctic

Dr. Ward notes that "China also has polar policies objectives." "Chinese strategists added the Arctic to the 'Belt and Road' in 2017." Along with the Arctic countries, Chinese see great advantages to a maritime trade route to Europe via the opening of the Arctic. In fact, "China views the Arctic as an essential arena in its global strategy".

4.6 - The Indo-Pacific: The Indian Ocean Region and South Pacific States

As we know, and as Dr. Ward, also describes current Chinese attention is on building its power to control the South China Sea. But, he also describes the early Chinese efforts to expand that control across the Indian Ocean as well. Their naval presence in that ocean is expanding and they are also seeking land routes to bypass the Strait of Malacca.
In the future, he writes, "As the Indo-Pacific emerges as the world's most significant geopolitical region, the question looms: How much influence and control might China come to have in this region as the heart of its 'Belt and Road' superproject?"

4.7 - China And The "Major Powers": The United States, Russia, India, Japan, and Europe

In this chapter Dr. Ward contrasts Chinese relations with less powerful nations and with 'major powers' - United States, Russia, India, Japan, and Europe. Of these their principal target (adversary, competitor) is the United States. Their strategy is to advance their power, and reduce American power but do this gradually, carefully, and in a manner that will not so alarm the United States as to generate a serious response, let alone a conflict.
He identifies one channel: "Beijing adds to this confusion in America and elsewhere in the world through its own brand of interference operations, directed against democratic countries." But, in contrast to Russian overt interference methods, The Chinese seek to promote a friendly, positive image in hopes of influence that will prevent defensive actions by other nations. The effort involves gaining influence in foreign institutions such as 'think tanks', universities, media, and government organizations. They hope to generate the support of these institutions that will, in turn, create favorable public opinion about China.
They also engage in direct strategic efforts. Dr. Ward writes: "China is likely to press ahead with attempts to outmaneuver US alliances and partnerships, gradually peeling countries away from an American order and into China's economic orbit through trade, investment, and commercial incentives that America can't or won't provide." The policy is to convince leaders throughout the world that their own nations would benefit from living in a Chinese rather than American world order. As that goal comes closer the Chinese methods expand.
He explains: 'The China of today has changed, China is no longer concerned only with its traditional strategic geography. It is now a global actor building a multi-regional military, with an intercontinental vision of its 'legitimate rights and interests'.... "The use of paramilitary power to compel smaller nations to bend to China's will is substantial."
Further, "But major powers must also beware. China's military, above all, is designed for conflict with the United States. It is also designed to deter and defeat India, and, if necessary, Russia though Russia-Chinese relations are currently at a high point."
Dr. Ward also discusses China's aims with respect to Russia and Europe.

Part V: "A Community of Common Destiny for Mankind": China's Vision for the New World Order

Dr. Ward asks the fundamental question. "What would it Mean for China to Rule the World?" And his response: "The answer has been in front of us all along. It has been in front of us as we read the Chinese Communist Party's statements, observe their strategies and actions, and come to under stand their intentions behind China's ascendancy in this century." .... "It is simple: China's rise, in the minds of its leaders and many of its people, is not a rise, but a restoration." .... "It is the restoration, as the Communist Party sees it, of an entire world defined by China' supremacy." In the following chapters Dr. Ward gradually reveals the full Chinese 'Vision' with each chapter containing Chinese concepts, policies, actions, and future efforts that are then expanded and elaborated in the following chapter.

5.1 - China's Vision for World Order

In this chapter Dr. Ward looks back into China's long history. "In order to understand this vision, we must turn first to ancient China. The most important thing to understand about the imperial Chinese order is that it was built on a hierarchy, both inside and outside China' borders." He provides much detail. The essence of this political history is the contrast between European (and Western) political/economic historical relations and those of China. The Western system is one of achieving a balance (the balance of power concept) between relatively equal sovereign powers even to the extent of engaging in war to retain balance.
But, Dr. Ward notes: "The Chinese system was markedly different from that of Western Europe..... In contrast, the Chinese world order was not an order made of states of equal power... It was an order that derived from Chinese supremacy."

5.2 - A Global "Middle Kingdom"

Dr. Ward describes the essence of the Chinese concept. "China's rulers today have a vision that is geographically and materially grander than anything their forebears could have imagined." ... "This vision is first and foremost about the integration of Europe, Africa, and Asia as an economic system, with China at its center." He discusses the Chinese initiative known as the 'Belt and Road Initiative'. They also call it the 'Community of Common Destiny for Mankind".

But what does this mean in desired practice? It means CONTROL - total control over individual's behavior and thought for their own good and the good of a 'harmonious' society. It is termed 'social management'. This is to be achieved by the employment of all the current and future technologies that will enable it.
Dr. Ward summarizes well: "Thus, the Communist party's security state works to fulfill its broader philosophical goals of harmony, stability, and social control through the development and implementation of new technology to achieve old authoritarian goals." And this result will be expanded world-wide. Dr. Ward quotes Xi Jinping's view of the future: "peace and development'. Yes, he points out. "Peace and development with China at the center." In the remainder of the chapter he elaborates extensively on this theme.

5.3 - "Interior Vassals" and "Exterior Vassals" in the "Community of Common Destiny for Mankind" In this chapter Dr. Ward expands on the three circle historical Chinese view of its self and neighbors. Included in these 'circles' of interior and external vassals, first come Hong Kong and Macau. Then come Tibet and Xinjiang. Der. Ward discusses these two in detail.
To provide a propaganda cover for its goals and actions the Chinese enunciated "The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" These are:
1. Mutual respect for territorial integrity
2. Mutual nonaggression
3. Mutual noninterference in internal affairs
4 .Equality and mutual benefit
5. Peaceful coexistence

Indeed, these principles were announced as the basis for India's acceptance of Chinese demands prior to then conducting war. Dr. Ward describes many more recent examples of Chinese claiming that these principles have been violated by even foreign private companies and demanding apologies. He comments: "And So American companies are forced to obey Beijing's line on matters such as the South China Sea, which are actually of great geopolitical importance in Asia, and which mater immensely for the future of American power in Asia."

5.4 -A World Transformed; A Day in the Life of Chinese Power

In this chapter Dr. Ward discusses his observations based on living in China and witnessing the manner in which the Party has already inculcated the mass of Chinese citizens with the view of the legitimacy of Chinese world domination and their individual roles in achieving this through technological supremacy..

5.5 - 2049: China's Vision of a New World Order

Dr. Ward asks again, 'What would it really look like for China to achieve its goals? .... "What role would other nations play in a system built after the 'great rejuvenation' of the Chinese nation?" In two pages he provides some ideas. Importantly, he also writes: " While this book is not concerned with the likelihood of China meeting its objectives, the book is meant to create awareness of Chinese strategy and ambitions and to have the reader take China's quest seriously."

Conclusion

Dr. Ward describes the current national policy, advocated by so many Americans for various reasons, of aquiesence to an 'inevitable' Chinese ascendency to become the world Super power and America's decline as long overdue and deserved. He mentions Graham Allison's book - Destined for War - as an example of this mind set.

Afterward

Dr. Ward expresses his optimism that Americans are waking up to the threat not only to the United States but to the world that the Chinese campaign to become the world Super power. He insists that with American leadership it is not too late to prevent this catastroply. He deplores American aquiescence to a Chinese replacement to American defense of moral values in the face of Chinese dictatorship. He specifically discusses Graham Allison's concept expressed in Destined for War, that there are only two alternativies - acceptance or war.

Concluding comment: Dr. Ward urges Americans to wake up and recognize the reality of the Chinese goal of word hegemony before it is too late.

References:
In this list I include books and news articles which are examples of the kind of American thinking about a 'peaceful' China or examples of those who agree with his assessment. Now, in 2020 the world is faced with a pandemic virus that originated in China. And the Chinese government is denying responsibility for it while taking full advantage of the financial - economic disaster facing other nations throughout the world.

The folder is in my directory of the 2005 visit to China in which I show photos of the remarkable Chinese Military History Museum which stresses the continuity of Chinese military activity since Neolithic Era. The Room in which are displayed 'presents' received from visiting foreign dignitaries or given to Chinese officials during foreign visits stresses the psychological attitude of the Chinese toward their foreign vassals as described by Dr. Ward. I was deeply impressed by the obvious purpose of this special exhibition - to demonstrate the subtle but real claim of hegemony (created by application of 'geoeconomics') that the Chinese believe they are achieving. The entire museum is an example of Dr. Ward's thesis.

The Annual Pentagon Report to Congress on Chinese Military Development - The U.S. Naval Institute comment and link to the document

The Annual Pentagon Report to Congress on Chinese Military Development - the 2019 China Military Power Report

Michael Pillsbury The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

Kai-Fu Lee - AI Superpowers China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order

Graham Allison - Destined for War

Louis -Vincent Gave - "The Hong Kong Conundrum"

Louis -Vincent Gave - "New World Order Will Have China on Top"

Charles Gave and Louis Vincent Gave - Clash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar World

Robert Blackwill & Jennifer Harris - War by Other Means: Geonomics and Statecraft

William Hawkins - This is Truly a Trade War

Victor Davis Hanson - China's Brilliant, Insidious Strategy

Gordon Chang - Coming Collapse of China

Martin Jacques - When China Rules the World

George Gilder - Life after Google

Philip Bobbitt - Shield of Achilles

Robert Kaplan - The Revenge of Geography

Ziad K. Abdelnour - Economic Warfare

P. W. Singer & Emerson Brooking - Like War: The Weaponization of Social Media

James Rickards - Currency Wars: The Making of the next Global Crisis

Marcia Christoff Kurapovna - "Russia, China and Geopolitics of the Silk Road"

Philip Ball - The Water Kingdom

Robert Spalding- Stealth War

Peter Frankopan - Silk Roads A New History of the World

Tonio Andrade -The Gunpowder Age: China, Military Innovation, and the Rise of the West in World History

Ralph Sawyer - Ancient Chinese Warfare

Robert Kaplan - Asia's Cauldron, Random House - Review by David Feith in WSJ, March 26, 2014

Geoff Dyer - The Contest of the Century, Knopf - Review by Ali Wyne in WSJ, February 11, 2014

John Micklethwait & Adrian Wooldridge, "Can China Govern Better Than the U.S. ?" - WSJ, May 17, 2014

Robert Hsu -China Fireworks

Bill Gertz Deceiving the sky: Inside Communist China's Drive for Global Supremacy

Bill Gertz, "Inside the Ring", An article based on remarks by Lt. Gen Robert Ashley and Army Gen Raymond Thomas about Chinese strategic military plans. "China is seeking to implement a new round of technological and industrial revolution for its military that includes the application of cutting edge technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum information, bigdata, could computing and the 'Internet of things'". All this describes the same program written about by Kai-=Fu Lee.

Samuel Griffith - Sun Tzu - The Art of War

Thomas Cleary - Sun Tzu - The Art of War

Ken Mondschein - The Art of War & Other Classics of Eastern philosophy

Samuel Griffith - Mao Tse-Tung on Guerrilla Warfare

Andrew Wilson - Understanding Imperial China

Andrew Willson - Masters of War: History's Greatest Strategic Thinkers

C. J. Peers - Soldiers of the Dragon: Chinese Armies 1500 BC - AD 1840

Ann Palludan - Chronicle of the Chinese Emperors

Caroline Blunden & Mark Elvin - China - The Cultural Atlas of the World Series

State Council document - New Generation of Artificial Intelligence Development Plan

Dambsa Moyo - Winner Take All: China's Race for Resources and What It Means for the World.

The Warring States period - in China

The Spring and Autumn period in China

Eugene Ahern - "The US. China and Japan: Grand Strategy"

Reshma Kapadia - "Interview of Keyu Jin" in Barron's Nov. 25, 2019

Reshma Kapadia : A World Beyond China" in Barron's Oct. 7, 2019

Reshma Kapadia - "Finding Chinese Stocks That Are Less at Risk" in Barron's July 8, 2019

Reshma Kapadia - "How to Profit as China Tried to Reinvest Itself" in Barron's January 28, 2019

Charles Hawkins & Robert Love, eds, The New Great Game: Chinese Views On Central Asia, Foreign Studies Office, Ft. Leavenworth, August, 2005 -
The Transcript of an excellent symposium with the lectures by a long list of Chinese scholars brought to Monterey for the purpose. the conference was in 2005 and the Chinese speakers were candid in their descriptions of the 'Chinese views' including what the Chinese thought American interests and policies were in Central Asia, what the Chinese thought the Americans believed about Chinese interests and policies were, what the Chinese thought about Russian ideas and what they thought about the policies of the Central Asian nations were. And what actual Chinese goals for the future would be.

Mathew Klein - "China's Slowdown Is Only Just Beginning" in Barron's January 28, 2019

Craig Mellow - "China's STAR Market Is Born" - in Barron's July 29, 2019

Craig Mellow - "Growth Alternatives to China" - in Barron's May 20, 2019

Craig Mellow, "China Neglects Shareholders" Barron's October 7, 2019,

This is a very interesting, brief article. It should be special reading by Americans, especially free market and libertarian folks who think that American consumers are engaged in commerce with Chinese private producers. The author points out that despite the Chinese economy growing three times faster than the U.S. economy its stocks have not kept up. He believes this is due not only to the tariff - trade war (which actually is very recent) but mostly to the way China's economy is structured by the government. First priority is socialist stability with dynamic innovative frontiers of capitalism, Then there are the huge state owned industries. The stockholders rate a poor third. He quotes one source as commenting that the government requires independent companies to raise worker's salaries no matter how the company is doing. And the state bank controls the companies financially by control over loans. As Kai-fu Lee describes the reality in which he loved, the government does encourage individuals to become competitive enrepreneurs and gain great financial wealth, but only while engaging in the specific technology fields that the government subsidizes. Meanwhile thanks to Chinese government manipulation foreigners are flocking to invest good money in Chinese stocks. Mr. Mellow's concluding comment, "To judge by the troops and ordnance rolling through Tinanmen Square during China's highly choreographed birthday party, president Xi Jinping and colleagues have bigger priorities than financial markets for the country's next leap forward. But fixing the misshapen capital allocation structure and watering the flowers of innovation may be no less critical to his grand ambition."

Michael Pettis - "As Growth Slows, China In Entering A New Stage" in Barron's April 8, 2019

The Economist - Gady Epstein et al. - "Special Report, China and The Internet", A giant cage, April 2013. 16 pgs.,

A set of enlightening essays on various aspects of Chinese efforts to dominate and control not only all aspects of the Internet within China but also to spread its methods world wide. One key conclusion -"The Internet was expected to help Democratize China. Instead, it has enabled the authoritarian state to get a firmer grip. says Gady Epstein. But for how long? This is only the relatively narrow role of the Internet. The many books recommended here show that Chinese domination (contrary to American expectations and hopes) has been their real objective all along.

Juan Ardenal & Herberto Araujo - China's Silent Army, Crown, 350 pgs, review by Jeffrey Wasserstrom In WSJ, April 23, 2013,
Mr. Wasserstrom does not like this book. He accuses the authors of creating a 'straw man' and being 'alarmist' and 'sensationalist'. Unfortunately his view was too common in 2013 and remains dominant in some American political thinking.

Craig Simon - The Devouring Dragon, St. Martin's 289 pgs, review by Jeffrey Wasserstrom in WSJ, April 23, 2013,

The reviewer likes the book, but not the title. Again it is too alarming. Apparently the author mostly criticizes China for excessive environmental damage in its rush for modernization. The reviewer feels he needs to remind us that whatever China is doing it is only trying to emulate the United States. Both the book and the review typically ignore the real threats from the Chinese Communist party terrible destruction of human rights and dedicated policy to become the world's most powerful political and economic force.

David Feith, Interview of Timothy L. Thomas "Why China Is Reading Your Email' in WSJ, March, 31, 2013.

This excellent, lengthy article exposes Chinese attacks on the U.S. via 'cyber war' methods. Dr. Thomas is an expert in the field at the U.S. Army Foreign Studies Office at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas.

Stratfor, "The Geopolitics of the Yangtze River: Developing the Interior", April 1, 2013, and The Geopolitics of the Yangtze River: Wuhan's Rise', April 2, 2013.
An excellent study as usual from Stratfor. This is one of three on the subject. it focuses mostly on Wuhan, the central river port link between China's costal regions and its interior. One main point - "The concept of developing the interior is rooted in the dynastic struggle to establish and maintain China as a unified power against internal forces of regional competition and disintegration. Those forces arise from and reflect a simple fact: China is in many ways as geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically as diverse as Europe." The authors describe how the Chinese government initially gave special economic subsidy to its coastal provinces in order to attract foreign capital to development there based on exports. Now that this has been accomplished and is loosing relative importance the government has shifted its priorities to economic development of the interior, especially that part reached by the Yangtze River. Again, a significant part of this program is to attract foreign capital for development. The article mentions some specifics of foreign investment in Wuhan