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Harry S. Dent Jr.

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Subtitle: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014 - 2019, Portfolio, Penguin, N.Y., 2014, 358 pgs., index, graphs


Reviewer Comments: The author places his major analysis on demographics, not only the results of the numbers of births each year and the resulting numbers of producers and consumers in each 5 or 10 year population segment but also the results of his studies of what people actually do at each period of their life. He uses statistics and probabilities to tell in great detail what people buy or sell at what ages. But even so he cannot predict the future actions and reactions of individuals and groups (organizations for instance) -behaviors - that will result in significant changes. For instance, although the world had already entered another major deflationary era in 2000, by 2014 governments and their central banks had been taking unprecedented steps to prevent deflation and attempt to generate inflation. Japan has not yet suffered as drastically as predicted. The financial bubble has continued to inflate. Real estate has in some ways reverted to being quite the same.




Chapter 1 - The Demographic Cliff Around the World


Chapter 2 - Following Japan into a Coma Economy


Chapter 3 - Why Real Estate will Never Be the Same


Chapter 4 - A Look at Public and Private Debt


Chapter 5 - A Brief History of Financial Bubbles


Chapter 6 - Commodity Prices: The Achilles' Heel of Emerging Countries


Chapter 7 - Investment Strategies for the Financial Crisis Ahead


Chapter 8 - Business Strategies for the Winter Season


Chapter 9 - Government Strategies for Facilitating Free Markets


Epilogue - A Major Revolution Brews Every 250 Years


Some References

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Glenn Hubbard and Tim Kane - The Economics of Great Powers

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William Strauss & Neil Howe - The Fourth Turning

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Mark Skousen - The Structure of Production

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Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner - Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

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Peter Zeihan - Accidental Superpower

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Peter Zeihan - Absent Superpower

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Peter Zeihan - Disunited Nations


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