GEO-ECONOMICS

JOACHIM KLEMENT

Sub-title:
The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics and Investments, CFA Institute Research Foundation, 2021, 290 pgs., Available on line as a PDF and as a e-book - many tables and graphs, bibliographies.

Reviewer comment:
The author is correct in stating that not enough attention is paid to geo-economics by investment analyists and ealth managers. He organizes his descriptions, facts and conclusions extremely well. The table of contents here well describes the content.
In the 2nd Quarter 2021 Issue 101 of the Joint Force Quarterly USAF Genral VAnHerck describes the critical importance of achieving and maintaining 'information dominance' "The future fight will be won or lost based on our ability to achieve information dominance by connecting data from all-domain awarness sensors to flexible and responsive decision superiority options. Effective information domininance systems must ingest. aggregate, process, display and disseminate data quickly and reliably by leverging the potential of AI and machine learning".
In his monograph Dr. Klement draws attention to this requirement in the context of applying 'information dominnace' as a critical feature of understanding of both geo-economics and of investment decisions their influence together.

Introduction: Geopolitics for Investors

Part I: Geopolitics that Maters

Chapter 1: How Geopolitics Can Influence Markets

-- The Link between Geopolitics, Economics and Investments 

-- Measuring Geopolitical Risk

-- Case Study: The Cost of Wars and the Peace Dividend

-- Conclusions

-- Bibliography

Chapter 2: Armed Conflict andTerrorist Attacks

-- Case Study: 2003 Invasion of Iraq

-- With Wars, Anything Can Happen

-- The (Mostly) Unpredictable Impact of Wars on Investments

--The War Puzzle

-- Hedging War Risks

--The Curious Case of Gold as a Crisis Hedge

--Terrorism andthe Changing Nature of Armed Conflict

--Case Study: 9/11

--The Impact of 9/11 on Financial Markets

--The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on an Economy

--The Main Victim of Terrorist Attacks: Sentiment

--Conclusions

-- Bibliography

Chapter 3: Access to Resources

-- Are All Conflicts about Resources?

--Resources and Geopolitics: Two Explanations for Conflict

--Oil, the Ultimate Geopolitical Commodity

-- Fracking: A Geopolitical Game Changer

--Saudi Arabia is Special

-- Oil Shocks and the Stock Market

--Oil Shocks and Currencies

--Supply Shocks in Metals

--Rare Earth Metals Are not a Geopolitical Threat

--Water as a Source of Geopolitical Conflict?

--Conclusion

--Bibliography

Chapter 4: International Economic Cooperation

--Building a New World Order

--The IMF: Benefits and Criticism

--Free Trade and the WTO

--Criticism of Free Trade Agreements

--Economic Diplomacy as a Means to Foster Growth

--International Tax Competition

--Globalization - A Multifaceted Development

--Globalizatiion and Growth

-Globalization and Inequality

--Toward a New World Order?

--Conclusions

-- Bibliography

Part II: Geopolitics That Could Matter to Investors

Chapter 5: My Rules of Forecasting

--TheProblem with Forecasting Geopolitical Events

--We Are Getting Better

--My 10 Rules of Forecasting

--Civil Strife from the FAll of Communism to the Arab Spring

--Conclusion

--Bibliography

Chapter 6: The Rivallry between the United States and China

--The Return of Great Power Competition

--Made in China 2025 and Beyond

--Regional Expansion:The World's Largest Free Trade Zone

--Global Connections: The Belt and Road Initative

--Expanding the Existing World Order: The AIIB

--The Reaction of the United States under Donald Trump

--Are We Heading toward a Thucydides Trap?

-Conclusion

--Bibliography

Chapter 7: Data--The Oil of the 21st Century

--Cyber Warfare and Cyber Attacks

-- Case Study: From 5G to 6G

-- The Vulnerability of Modern Infrastructure

--The Cost of Data Breaches for Private Companies

--Do Stock Markets Care about Security Breaches?

--Could Cyber Attacks Cause a Financial Crisis?

--Blockchain to the Rescue?

--Conclusions

--Bibliography

Chapter 8: The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy

--Evolution, Maybe Revolution

--Fast-Rising Electricity Demand Creates Challenges

--Tipping Points and the Inevitable Policy Response

--A New Kind of Resource Competition?

--Navigating the Energy-Technology Revolution

--Where Does the Money Come From?

--The Decline of Petrostates?

--Geopolitical Hot Spots during the Energy Transition

--The Options for International Oil Majors

--Energy Independence for Emerging Markets

--Geopolitical Risks of the Energy Transition

--Conclusions

--Bibliography

Chapter 9: The Impact of Climate Change

--Climate Change Skews Us More Than We Might Expect

--How a Volvano in Iceland Might have Caused the French Revolution

--Global Warming and Global Weirding

--Climate Change and Investment Risk

--Scenarios for the Future

--Can We Inovate Ourselves Out of Our Problems?

--The Economic Cost of Carbon

--Tipping Points and Black Swans

--The Social Consequences of Climate Change

--Environmental Regulation-An International Competitive Disadvantage?

--Conclusions

--Bibliography