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American Action Forum, January 28, 2019, 6
pgs.
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Reviewer Comment:
The author considers an issue different from the frequent discussion about the
economic theories and practices described by GND commentators.
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Introduction:
Mr. Bosch provides a summary of the main policies demanded by the GND
proponents, to wit: expanded government investments, mandates, and guarantees
that they claim will reduce green house gas emissions and improve the economy.
In this short article he proposes to examine the 'cost and practical
implications' that would be required. He divides the policy proposals into four
categories: 1. Existing rules that have not been fully implemented to date; 2.
strengthening current standards: 3. new regulations currently allowed by law:
4. new regulations that would requite Congressional legislation.
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Cost Implications:
For the type one actions under existing Obama Administration policies. For
these he provides a table listing specific actions with related costs and
totals these at $16.5 billions. But for 'faster' action they would require
greater expenditure.
For the type 2 actions he identifies costs of $156 billion and $202 billion for
those he can estimate, but lists more for which he cannot estimate costs. The
type 3 actions, he notes would require entirely new regulatory programs which
would likely require court approvals. He has no estimate of the costs of these
actions. The costs for type 4 actions (which require Congressional legislation)
are beyond estimate.
He, however, provides an estimate of the potential total costs. For this
summary he offers a $1 trillion, minimum but states that the cost could be
'multiples' greater. His estimate is very much less than some others in print.
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Practical Implications:
Among these he notes that the GND proposal has a time component of 11 - 31
years. He believes that the legislative and executive branches could not even
implement the necessary regulations in this time period. In addition such
demands. if even passed into law, would certainly face length court challenges.
Another problem would be staffing the regulatory agencies, plus funding them
(costs not included). All in all, he foresees a massive political struggle
which itself would have a huge cost in addition to the external costs of the
economic impact on society.
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Conclusion:
The whole GND concept is 'unrealistic and extraordinarily expensive'.
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That may be 'nice' to know, but the political
interest groups championing GND are not interested in either 'costs' or
'practicality.'
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Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Dan Bosch, BEn
Giktis, Dan Goldbeck - The Green New Deal: Scope, Scale and Implications
This is a much more comprehensive discussion of the many specific policy
proposals in the GND with a much greater estimated cost.
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