
GENERAL



The Soviet planning process includes a great deal of time and effort
in making detailed calculations. Therefore it is important for the students to
learn the proper procedures for calculating a wide variety of information about
both enemy and friendly forces. These calculations occur at each stage of the
decision process.



CLARIFICATION OF THE MISSION
At this time the commander must calculate the depth and width of the
front missions, the time to achieve these and the required rate of
advance. From these calculations he derives his general idea of the number of
armies required and their echelonment and formation. He and/or the Chief of
Staff must calculate the time available for planning and preparation of the
troops for combat. From this they develop a time schedule for accomplishing all
these needed actions.



ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION
ENEMY
During this phase the commander first calculates the density of enemy
forces in each different area and for various depths. He calculates the enemy
nuclear capability in terms of the number of targets and kilotons it is
possible for the enemy to deliver. He also calculates enemy artillery
capabilities in terms of hectares of target per salvo, aircraft capabilities in
terms of numbers of sorties per day and enemy air defense in terms of numbers
of aircraft that can be shot down at one time.
The commander calculates the time and space factors, first those related
to mobilizing and preparing the units for combat and then those that show when
units can reach their combat starting locations. For these he includes the
enemy operational and strategic reserves in order to establish how soon they
will reach the areas he believes the enemy will want to assign to them. These
calculations make use of simple rate of movement formulas and established norms
for movement over various roads as well as norms for accomplishing each
activity such as debarking, dismounting, deploying and etc. Next the
calculations take into consideration the disturbances to the time schedules
that might be introduced by disruptions to the line of communications, blocking
of ports, destruction of air fields and other similar events.
The probable enemy concept of operations is assessed by estimating the
length of delay actions he can achieve on each line based on the calcuation of
the density of forces and means. If the density is one company per kilometer
then a division can hold for a day or so within its 12 km deep position. At
this time the possible locations at which the enemy reserves can intervene in
the battle are noted from the calculation of when and from where they can
launch counterattacks.
If the initial enemy position is to the rear of his prefered battle
position, calculations are made to find out if a meeting engagement between the
large units is to be expected.
FRIENDLY
When the commander turns to the estimate of friendly forces he makes many
of the same calculations. First there is the movement from garrison including
time to mobilize and bring the forces to full combat readiness and time to
establish the unit attack groupings. These calculations are mostly
reconfirmation of existing planned activities. The commander can turn to the
staff all of whom know what will be asked of them ahead of time to insure that
units can arrive on time. The calculations require information on the status of
units, and where they draw supplies or how the supplies will be delivered.
The combat capability of friendly forces includes calculation of nuclear
capability in kilotons and numbers of warheads, artillery firepower in hectares
of target per salvo, air defense capability in numbers of aircraft destroyed
and aircraft in squadron sorties per day. The air defense calculations are
especially complex since they involve detailed numerical factors for each type
of weapon and target acquisiton.
The commander must next establish the correlation of troops and means.
This is shown in a table titled COMPOSITION OF FORCES AND DENSITY. The friendly
and enemy forces are shown in terms of nuclear rounds, nuclear delivery means,
divisions, artillery, tanks, antitank missiles, air defense weapons, and
aircraft. The ratios are calculated using quantitative and qualitative factors
and are figured for the front as a whole and for each individual axis
and for each relevant depth of mission. They are calculated for; the start of
the operation, after the initial nuclear strike, at the end of the first day,
at the end of the immediate mission of the armies, at the end of the immediate
mission of the front, and at the end of the subsequent mission of the
front.
The calculations for correlation and density for each of the points in
time after the start involve calculations of the estimated losses that each
side will have incured. The calculation for losses in the initial nuclear
strike is made by taking the total number of rounds allocated (or estimated for
the enemy) and from this the number and yield that will be targeted against
divisions to get a number of rounds per division. Then norms are applied to
estimate losses. One norm is that if a division is hit by more than 6 7
nuclear rounds it suffers medium damage and is incapacitated. If it is hit by
more than 12 rounds it is destroyed. The effect of losses is estimated and 30%
is considered heavy casualties while 50  60% will equal destruction. Losses
for each day of combat are calculated according to norms for conventional and
nuclear warfare. The correlation at the end of the first day would include loss
norms of about 5% for personnel and 8% for tanks and lesser numbers for other
equipment. One norm is that in 7 days of fighting a loss of 50  80% for tanks
is expected. Some other norms are for army level in conventional war 1.1  1.3
% personnel per day; for nuclear 3.8  5.3 % per day; and 7.7  10.4 for the
entire operation in conventional war and 27  42 % for the entire operation in
nuclear war. Equipment loss norms include conventional of 89% per day and 40 
60 % for vehicles and 50  80 % for tanks All these norms are used to calculate
the correlation of remaining forces for the various subsequent times. For
instance, at the end of 5 days in an operation it might be expected that the
attacker will have suffered losses of 7% in personnel, 40% in tanks, 25% in APC
and 35% in other vehicles while the defender will have suffered losses of 5% in
personnel, 35% in tanks, 20% in APC and 30% in vehicles.
After both sides are calculated it is possible to make a deduction on the
proper distribution of troops to the several axes and then to distribute the
combat support arms and reserves, naval and airborne assaults and other
support.
An important set of calculations is made for electronic warfare in
determining how many communications links above division can be neutralized by
the available REW assets. Each radio electronic warfare battalion has a
capability based on its means to jam a certain number of radio nets of a
certain power or type. The enemy can also jam certain links.
When the missions of the armies are determined there are then calculations
related to the coordination of forces. These are to establish how groupings
will be created and what times will be involved. A table showing who will do
what at each time is prepared.
The locations and times for movement of the command posts are calculated
based on the planned course of the offensive. Then the role of adjacent forces
are considered. The calculations are made to see how the missions of adjacent
forces might involve the front and vice versa. For instance the time an
airborne division can sustain itself before linkup with ground forces is used
in calculating when the airborne operation should take place. One of the
adjacent forces is the strategic rocket and air force. The timing of their
strategic nuclear strike if any or the strategic air operation is considered in
calculations on when to launch the operational strike.
TERRAIN
The terrain is then considered in calculations to refine the plans. The
capacity of routes, ports, airfields, bridges, etc is considered to insure that
the forces can move as planned. The economic situation in the theater is the
basis for calculations on the availability of local resources such as supplies
and transportation means.



SAMPLE CALCULATIONS



Exercise calculations: Determine the time
and distance to the line of meeting with a counterattacking enemy reserve
when:
 the enemy reserve (up to 2 mech and 2 tank battalions) is sighted 28 km
from the forward line of division's attacking troops:
 enemy's speed of advance is about 15 km/hr:
 a delay of 30 minutes is expected in the enemy movement due to a narrow
area along the road:
 planned air strikes and artillery fire's are expected to delay the enemy
for another 40 minutes:
 the speed of own attacking forces in the first echelon is 4 km/hr due to
isolated enemy's strong points across the front:
 the attack on enemy's position 4 km further in the depth (the troops are
expected to reach there within an hour) is expected to delay 45 minutes for
minor regroupment.
Solution:
Use the following formula:
where
t_{v}=expected time of meeting the enemy in hours:
D=distance between opposing forces in km
t_{n}=total delay time for own forces in hours
V_{n}=speed of movement of own forces
t_{p}=total delay time for enemy forces
V_{p}=speed of movement of enemy forces
Results:
t_{v}={28 + [(0.75 x 4) + (1.15 x 15)]} ÷ (4 + 15)
t_{v}=[28 + (3 + 17.35)} ÷ 19
t_{v}=(28 + 20.25) ÷ 19 : t_{v}=2.54 or 2 hrs and 33
minutes
Now to determine the distance of meeting with the enemy use this formula:
l_{p}=V_{n} (t_{v}  t_{n} )
l_{p}=4 (2.54  0.75)
l_{p}=7.16 km
This means that the first echelon forces will be able to destroy the enemy in
this intermediate defensive position before it can launch its counterattack,
provided the enemy's reserve is delayed by air strikes and artillery fire for
not less than 40 minutes and the enemy does have to slow down 30 minutes delay
to cross the narrow pass and own forces do not take more than 45 minutes to
regroup in order to continue the attack.
If the division commander determines that the line of meeting with the enemy is
not convenient, he can chose to repel the counterattack from a line further in
back or he might want to further delay the enemy so that the first echelon
troops can move further than 7.16 km before the enemy launches his
counterattack. This calculation can also be conducted by filling in the
preprepared form.



Exercise: On the basis of the assumptions which were
mentioned in exercise 10 determine the number of antitank weapons (ATGM and AT
guns) to repel the enemy tanks when:
the number of enemy tanks are estimated to be 80:
no less than 50% of enemy tanks must be destroyed:
 the probability of destruction of a single tank by one weapon with one
shot is 0.2:
 up to 8 rounds may be fired by each weapon in the time the tanks are
located in the effective zone of fire:
Solution: To determine the required number of antitank weapons use the
formulas or the nomogram.
1. formulas;
where:
M_{n}=degree of destruction of artillery tanks (in percentage);
P_{1}=probability of destruction by one weapon in one shot;
N=required number of anti tank weapons to accomplish the mission;
m=weapon rate of fire or number of shots one weapon can shoot during the time
the target is in within range;
M=expected number of attacking tanks.
This method is a lengthy one and difficult to use under field conditions.
2. The nomogram can be used for up to 40 tanks. However, for over 40 tanks
divide the number into pieces less than 40 and calculate on the basis of the
nomogram and add the results: 60=40 + 20, or 77=40 + 37 etc.
In this example the following calculation can be done on the nomogram: Draw a
perpendicular line from 0.5 mark on the "Required amount of destruction of
targets" scale to intersect with the "Probability of target
destruction by one round 0.2" curve. From this point draw a horizontal
line to the intersection with the "Number of attacking ground targets 
40" line and then a vertical line up to the "Number of firing by one
weapon  8" line. From this point go along the horizontal to
"Required number of antitank weapons" scale and read 17 then multiply
it by 2 to get the required number of AT weapons for 80 tanks: 17 x 2=34 AT
weapons.



Exercise calculation: The division commander decided to
use the divisional AT reserve at the line for repulsing the enemy's
counterattack, which previous exercise set at 7 km up from the current forward
line of the first echelon troops. The AT reserve is now 8 km from the forward
line. The enemy is 21 km away from the line of repulsion of counterattack with
an expected delay of 1 hour and 10 minutes on the way (due to planned air
strikes and artillery's fire). The speed of advance of the enemy is 15 km/hr
the effective range of AT weapons is 3 km. The AT reserve will need 30 minutes
to deploy on the fire line and prepare for action. It's speed of movement 12
km/hr.
Determine how much time is available for the division commander and staff to
assign mission to the AT reserve.
Solution:
Use the following formula:
where:
t=time available for the commander and his staff to assign mission
D=distance of the enemy to the line of contact
t_{p}=total delay time for enemy forces
V_{p}=speed of movement of enemy forces
d=effective range of AT weapons
t_{n}=total time required for AT reserve to move to the line of the
repulsion of the enemy's counterattack and time to prepare for action.
1. First determine the t_{n}:
where:
t_{n}=time for AT reserve to move and prepare for action
V_{n}=speed of movement of AT reserve
t_{r}=time to prepare for action
t_{n}=(8 + 7) ÷ 12 + 0.5=1.75
2. Now determine the t:
t={[D + (t_{p} x V_{p})]  d} ÷ V_{p} 
t_{n}
t={[21 + (1.15 x 15)] 2} ÷ 15= 1.75
t=(21 + 17.5) 2 ÷ 15= 1.75
t=38  2 ÷ 15= 1.75
t=36 ÷ 15= 1.75
t=2.25  1.75=0.5
t=30 minutes.
This means that the division commander and staff should assign mission to the
AT reserve within 30 minutes (not later) so that the AT reserve will arrive and
get prepared on the line of repulsion before the enemy tanks reach the
effective range of AT weapons at the line.



Exercise: In planning the commitment of divisions's second
echelon the area within 4 km of the enemy intermediate defensive position,
which is to be attacked by the secondechelon, is open and when the regiment
moves and deploys to company and platoon columns and assumes the combat
formation in this area, it should be covered by artillery strikes conducted on
enemy strong points at the line of commitment and on the flanks. The line of
attack is 1 km and the line of fire safety is 400 m from enemy position. The
speed of movement is 20 km/hr and speed of attack is 6 km/hr. Determine the
duration of artillery strike to cover the deployment and attack of the
secondechelon regiment.
Solution: To determine the duration of artillery strike calculate the time it
takes the regiment to deploy and move to the line of attack and then to the
safety line of fire in front of enemy position (400m).
Use equations:
t=t_{a} + t_{r} ...........(1)
where:
t=time of artillery strike;
t_{a}=time for crossing the attack line up to the fire safety line;
t_{r}=time spent from deployment in the company columns up to the line
of attack;
D_{a}=distance of attack line from enemy position;
d=distance of fire safety line to the enemy position;
V_{a}=speed of movement in attack;
D_{r}=distance of deployment into company columns;
V=speed of movement of troops;
Results:
t_{a}=(1 0.4) x 60 ÷ 6=6 minutes
t_{r}=3 x 90 ÷ 20=27 ÷ 2=13.5 minutes
t=t_{a} + t_{r}=6 + 13.5 approximately 20 minutes
This means that the artillery strike should be conducted for 20 minutes to
cover the commitment of the second echelon regiment.



Exercise calculation: The division has accomplished its
immediate mission and continues the attack in depth to complete the destruction
of the enemy forces in its tactical zone and accomplish the long range mission
by the end of the day. The first echelon regiments are fighting with the enemy
forces, which conduct delaying action and cover the withdrawal of its main
forces across the Schmalin River. Two enemy battalion size columns 15 km from
the river are withdrawing to the river apparently to establish defense on the
river. The division commander has decided to assign a forward detachment to
prevent the arrival of these enemy battalions on the river. The distance to the
enemy columns from the head of the assigned forward detachment is 15 km. A 20
minute delay is expected in the movement of enemy columns due to planned
friendly air strikes. The speed of movement of enemy's columns is 15km/hr.
Determine the expected time and rate of overtaking of the withdrawing enemy by
division's forward detachment.
Solution: Here the crucial issue is to overtake the enemy before he is able to
cross and establish defense at the river.
1. First determine how long does it take the enemy to reach the river:
t=D + (t_{p} x V_{p}) ÷ V_{p}
t=time it takes the enemy to reach the river;
D=distance of the enemy to the river;
t_{p}=expected delay in enemy's movement;
V_{p}=speed of enemy's movement;
t=15 + (0.5 x 15) ÷ 15
t=15 + 7.5 ÷ 15=22.5 ÷ 15 1.5
t=1 hr and 30 minutes
Therefore the enemy's columns must be overtaken within less than 1.5 hours.
2. Assume that the speed of movement of the forward detachment is 20 km/hr:
Now  t_{o}=[D  (t_{p} x V_{p} )] ÷
(V_{n}  V_{p} )
t_{o}=time to overtake the enemy (hours);
D=distance to the enemy;
t_{p} and V_{p}=same as in 1;
V_{n}=speed of movement of own forces (forward detachment);
t_{o}=15  (0.5 x 15) ÷ 20  15
t_{o}=15  7.5 ÷ 5
t_{o}=7.5 ÷ 5=1.5
t_{o}=1 hour and 30 minutes
This means that at a speed of 20 km/hr the forward detachment can not catch the
enemy columns before they reach the river. In order to overcome this, either
the speed of movement should be increased or the enemy should be further
delayed by air strikes, airborne assault troop, artillery fires, mines etc.
3. In order to find the required speed of movement of the forward detachment to
overtake the enemy in one hour perform the following calculation, using the
formulas:
V_{n}={[D  t_{p} x V_{p})] + (t_{o} x
V_{p})} ÷ t_{o}
V_{n}=[15  (0.5 x 15)] + [(1 x 15)] ÷ 1
V_{n}=7.5 + 15 ÷ 1=22.5 ÷ 1=22.5
V_{n}=22.5 km/hr.
Therefore the speed of movement of the forward detachment should be at least
22.5 km per hour to ensure the enemy's interception within an hour. At that
time the enemy will be 7.5 km from the river.
D=(t x V_{p})  (t_{p} x V_{p})
D=(1 + 15)  (0.5 x 15)
D=15  7.5=7.5 km



STAFF DUTIES FOR CALCULATIONS



The staff accomplishes the following calculations during preparation
for the operation and during break through of enemy defense:
Chief of operations directorate:
 calculation on time required to prepare;
 movement, deployment, beginning of attack of prepared defense, for the
main forces of army (division);
 (The movement norms for road march in rear areas in daylight is 30 km/hr
and night 20 km/hr, but when near the enemy the rate drops to 1015 km/hr. Near
means at the distance for which enemy heavy artillery can fire or about 1215
km. Also, the deployment itself requires 2030 minutes.
 determine the correlation of forces:
 over the entire frontage;
 on the main axis;
 on other axes;
 at the end of the first day of operation;
 at time of repelling enemy counterattack;
 at time of commitment of second=echelon;
 during water crossings;
(The correlation is done with help of the table list of forces and means.)
 conduct of calculations on combat capabilities of forces during
destruction of enemy forces; (total sum of hectares and of the number of
targets that can be destroyed in fire preparation period.)
 calculations on commandant's service, how much forces are needed to
accomplish tasks;
( For total length of distance and number of roads add the number of men,
sergeants, officers, APC radio stations etc. required).
Chief of reconnaissance:
 calculations on enemy capabilities during his attack with nuclear strike
on our forces;
 (total destruction capability and (three elements  fire capability,
movement capability, cover capability and support elements including supplies
etc.)
 calculations of enemy capabilities during attack with conventional means;
same elements
 calculation of enemy capability during counter attack:
 calculate time required for enemy to prepare move, deploy, and the time
for his attack; (time to prepare and move from garrison, time to travel on
roads and deploy into combat time to prepare forces etc.)
 calculate enemy forces and means able to conduct counter attack;
(analysis of forces available from current locations in time expected)
 calculate artillery fire capabilities during counter attack
 calculation capabilities on friendly radio electronic combat
reconnaissance units OSNAZ. (how many enemy targets they can discover and track
at the same time) at what ranges.
 calculation of capabilities of friendly radiotechnical electronic combat
reconnaissance units OSNAZ. (
 calculation of SPETZNAZ reconnaissance companies. time area targets to
find etc. (per day recon 2 targets for each patrol in area of 10 by 10 km.
 calculation capabilities of air reconnaissance; (how many targets at what
ranges how fast how many aircraft are available their technical capabilities
Chief of artillery: \
 calculation time for preparation, movement, deployment, and taking up
artillery positions and prepare to open fire;
 calculation on various artillery reconnaissance;
 calculation various on artillery strikes in support of forward
detachments and main forces;
 calculations on density of artillery in the break through sector;
 calculation and analysis of enemy defense (quantity of platoon strong
points in forward line and in depth, artillery and mortar batteries, command
posts, forces in secondechelon, reserves, positions of air defense rockets and
units, antitank means and others)
 calculation on organization of army, division, and regimental artillery
groups.
 calculations on fire capabilities of artillery;
 calculation on capabilities of missile forces using nuclear, chemical,
and conventional rockets. (
 calculation of time for artillery preparatory fire, fire strikes, (means
for preparatory fire) calculation on ammunition supplies; (
 calculation on artillery support fire (strikes and barrages) and
ammunition required;
 calculation on antitank means and direct fire weapons during preparatory
fire;
 determine fire capability of the antitank reserve during repelling enemy
counterattack;
 calculation on movement and shifting positions for artillery;
Commander of air forces (at front, or air representative at army)
 calculation on air forces
 calculation of fire capability of air forces during break through and
during operation;
 calculation of fire capability of helicopters during repelling enemy
counterattack;
 calculation of fire capability of air forces during air support fire and
accompanying fire;
 calculation on time for preparation of air flights and movement and
strikes in various levels of combat readiness against targets located in enemy
rear areas;
 calculation on repelling enemy air strikes by fighter aviation;
 calculation various on air reconnaissance;
 calculation on aerial photography;
 calculation on delivery of reports about reconnaissance to the command
post;
Chief of PVO:
 calculation on combat capabilities of PVO forces of army during repelling
mass enemy strikes and individual or small group strikes, during day and night
and bad weather poor visibility conditions;( What area can be covered against
air strike time to prepare numbers of rockets ready to fire
 calculation on capabilities for observation and reconnaissance against
enemy air forces; and warning forces;
 calculation on repelling strikes by enemy by fighter aircraft at various
levels of combat readiness and those on combat air patrol;
Chief of engineers:
 calculation on engineer forces capabilities during opening lanes in mine
fields;
 capabilities of engineers during construction of mine fields;
 calculation on creation of trenches strong points, cover for machines and
vehicles, command points, etc.
 calculation on engineer forces on opening column routes and roads in
various terrain conditions;
Chief of radio electronic combat:
 capabilities of radio units SPETZNAZ during jamming enemy radio
electronic means;number of targets  they have designated capabilities and
range and time for shift from one target to another  depends on training and
on capability for recon to find targets to jam)
 calculation of capabilities of radio technical units SPETZNAZ during
covering forces from enemy direct bombardment; and maskirovka diversion of
rockets etc.
Chief of chemical:
The staff performs the following calculations during repelling enemy sudden
initial attack:
 time enemy may be ready to attack and move deploy and strike with main
forces;
 enemy artillery capabilities aviation, and nuclear means;
 time for preparation and open fire by artillery, rockets and aviation on
enemy while moving forward;
 calculation on combat capabilities of army forces;
 correlation of forces and means in general and on each axis;
Staff calculations during meeting engagement:
 calculation on location preparation, movement, deployment, and seizing
the line of contact for the meeting engagement;
 calculation on determining line for meeting the enemy in various
conditions;
 calculation on enemy combat capabilities;
 calculation on preparation, movement, deployment, and attack by army main
forces;
 calculation on preparation, march, deployment, and occupation of firing
positions and start of artillery fire strike on enemy;
 calculation on combat capabilities of army forces;
 correlation of fores of the sides in general and on each axis;
Staff performs similar calculations on repelling enemy counterattack:
Staff calculations on commitment of secondechelon into engagement:
 calculation on enemy combat capability;
 calculation on preparation accomplish march, deployment, and enter
engagement by secondechelon;
 calculation of combat capability of army forces'
 calculation on commandant service;
 calculation analysis of enemy defense
 calculation on time for preparatory fire and fire strikes, and ammunition
supplies;
 calculation on fire support and accompanying fire;
 calculation on determination of antitank reserve capabilities;
 calculation of capabilities mobile obstacle detachments to cover flanks;
 calculation on density of artillery per km of front;
 calculation on organization of artillery groups in division and
regiments;
 calculation on building routes by engineers;
 calculation on opening lanes in enemy mine fields if any.
 and others.
Staff calculations on forcing water obstacles:
 calculation time for movement and deployment of forward detachments and
forcing river by forward detachment.
 calculation of time for movement, deployment, preparation, and forcing
water obstacles by first echelon of army;
 calculation on river crossing equipment for bridges, rafts, assault
crossings, and swimming crossing;
 calculation for creation of roads to crossing sites.
 calculation on commandant's service in area of crossing with engineer
forces;
 calculation on organization of commandant's service by combined arms
units and sub units during approach to crossing site.
 calculation on fire capability of artillery, missile units PVO and
combined arms formations;
 calculation of capability of engineers for creating of bridges, fords and
assault crossings.
 calculation on preparation and flight crossing and seizing enemy bank by
air assault operation.
 calculation of combat capability of air forces to delay approaching enemy
forces;
 calculation of combat capability of fighter aviation to repel enemy air
attack on crossing, by combat air patrol and air forces at air fields.
Staff also performs calculation of preparation and movement of command posts
during the operation.







